Economic Effects of Micro- and Mini-Distributed Photovoltaic Generation for the Brazilian Distribution System

The micro- and mini-distributed generation (MMDG) has significantly increased after the normative resolution No. 482/2012 in Brazil; installed capacity surpassed 7 GW 2021. In international context, a similar event was observed, whose process generated cross-subsidy for other consumers, addition to problems that affect economic balance of concessionaires. To mitigate this issue, National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) is revising current rules. Thus, study estimates weight decision, through methodology adapted from assessment models, based on information Brazilian regulatory system. order achieve it, paper presents metrics define potential market MMDG, consumption patterns consumers. Then, time series analysis, MMDG demand curve estimated under two scenarios up 2030. Finally, impact tariff adjustments revisions, their effect electric power concessionaires are evaluated. distribution companies Enel Group alone, losses at USD 1.2 billion by 2030; 53% will be passed consumers’ tariffs. experiences, it can concluded best model adequate grid remuneration.